The 21st century will witness the collision of two powerful forces -- burgeoning population growth, together with a changing climate. With population growth, water scarcity will proliferate to new areas across the globe. And with climate change, rainfall will become more fickle, with longer and deeper periods of droughts and deluges. This report presents new evidence to advance understanding on how rainfall shocks coupled with water scarcity, impacts farms, firms, and families.

Table of Contents

• Foreword
• Acknowledgments
• Abbreviations
• Executive Summary
• Parched Farms, Shriveling Yields, and Shrinking Forests 2 When Rainfall Becomes Destiny
• Vulnerability in the City
• Avoiding the Parched Path
• Chapter 1: Water in the Balance
• Introduction
• A Complex Natural Resource That Presents Wicked Challenges
• A Global Backdrop of Expanding Water Deficits and Declining Water Quality
• The Increasing Variability of Rainfall
• A Snapshot of the Approach
• References
• Chapter 2: Drenched Fields and Parched Farms
• The Challenge of Rainfall Variability
• Much to Be Learned, Despite Decades of Research
• Agricultural Productivity Is Highly Sensitive to Rainfall Shocks
• Dry Shocks Can Accelerate Cropland Expansion
• Implications for Food Security
• The Role of Infrastructure as a Buffer against the Effects of Rainfall Variability
• Coupling Investments with Policies Can Overcome the Paradox of Supply
• Concluding Comments
• Annex 2A: Rainfall Shocks, Farmers, and Forests: Weather-Induced Deforestation in Madagascar
• References
• Chapter 3: When Rainfall Is Destiny: The Long-Lasting Impacts of Water Shocks on Families
• The Importance of Early-Life Environmental Conditions
• Sub-Saharan Africa Is a Region Highly Vulnerable to Rainfall Shocks
• The Impacts of Rainfall Shocks in Infancy Persist Well into Adulthood
• The Impacts of Large Fluctuations in Rainfall Persist into the Next Generation
• The Cascading Impacts on the Gender Dimension
• What Can Be Done to Prevent Rainfall Shocks from Becoming Destiny?
• References
• Chapter 4: Water in the City: Drops, Blocks, and Shocks
• Water Shocks in the Cities: Drowned or Dehydrated?
• The Unexpected Pathways through Which Shocks Impact Incomes
• Water in the Business Environment
• The Costs of Service Deficits
• Addressing Water Shortages and Shocks: The Regulatory Lever
• Conclusion
• References
• Chapter 5: Going with the Flow: The Policy Challenge
• Supply-Side Investments Are Essential
• Managing Water Risks in the City Requires Greater Efficiency and Investment
• Closing the Supply Gap Requires Demand Management
• Complementary Policies to Protect the Vulnerable from Water Shocks
• Policies to Protect the Sources of Water
• Conclusions
• References
• Appendix A
• Weather Data
• Defining Rainfall Shocks
• Rainfall Shocks’ Relatability to Other Extreme Events and Indices
• References